Incidence of acute lower respiratory tract disease hospitalisations, including pneumonia, among adults in Bristol, UK, 2019, estimated using both a prospective and retrospective methodology

Objectives
To determine the disease burden of acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) and its subsets (pneumonia, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and heart failure) in hospitalised adults in Bristol, UK.

Setting
Single-centre, secondary care hospital, Bristol, UK.

Design
We estimated aLRTD hospitalisations incidence in adults (≥18 years) in Bristol, UK, using two approaches. First, retrospective International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) code analysis (first five positions/hospitalisation) identified aLRTD events over a 12-month period (March 2018 to February 2019). Second, during a 21-day prospective review (19 August 2019 to 9 September 2019), aLRTD admissions were identified, categorised by diagnosis and subsequently annualised. Hospital catchment denominators were calculated using linked general practice and hospitalisation data, with each practice’s denominator contribution calculated based on practice population and per cent of the practices’ hospitalisations admitted to the study hospital.

Participants
Prospective review: 1322 adults screened; 410 identified with aLRTD. Retrospective review: 7727 adult admissions.

Primary and secondary outcome measures
The incidence of aLRTD and its subsets in the adult population of Southmead Hospital, Bristol UK.

Results
Based on ICD-10 code analysis, annual incidences per 100 000 population were: aLRTD, 1901; pneumonia, 591; LRTI, 739; heart failure, 402. aLRTD incidence was highest among those ≥65 years: 65–74 (3684 per 100 000 adults), 75–84 (6962 per 100 000 adults) and ≥85 (11 430 per 100 000 adults). During the prospective review, 410/1322 (31%) hospitalised adults had aLRTD signs/symptoms and annualised incidences closely replicated retrospective analysis results.

Conclusions
The aLRTD disease burden was high, increasing sharply with age. The aLRTD incidence is probably higher than estimated previously due to criteria specifying respiratory-specific symptoms or radiological change, usage of only the first diagnosis code and mismatch between case count sources and population denominators. This may have significant consequences for healthcare planning, including usage of current and future vaccinations against respiratory infection.

Leggi
Giugno 2022

Planned, ongoing and completed tuberculosis treatment trials in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa: a 2019 cross-sectional descriptive analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a deadly challenge globally and Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are among the countries with the highest TB burden. The objective of this study is to identify and describe ongoing, planned and completed TB trials conducted in the BRICS countries registered in WHO-International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (WHO-ICTRP); to report selective outcome reporting by comparing primary outcomes in published trials with their prespecified outcomes in registry records and to evaluate the time to publication.
Methods and analysis
We searched the WHO-ICTRP portal (20 January 2019) and the Russian Federation Registry (30 March 2019) to identify TB trials conducted in BRICS countries. We included only registered clinical trials conducted wholly in BRICS countries or with at least one recruitment centre in one of the BRICS countries that were investigating TB treatment.

Results
The search of the WHO-ICTRP yielded 408 trials and additional 32 trials were identified from the Russian registry. Of those, 253 were included in the analysis. We found that 77 trials were multicountry trials, followed by trials in China (55), India (53), South Africa (34), Russia (23) and Brazil (11). 163 trials were registered prospectively, 69 retrospectively and 21 trials had no registration status. Most trials (207) evaluated TB treatment, followed by 29 behaviour change interventions, 13 nutritional supplementation, 4 surgical treatment and 2 assessing rehabilitation. Based on ICJME recommendation of publishing 12 months after completion of trial, we found that 156 trials were completed 12 or more months by date and 101 trials had publications. Thirty-one of the 101 trials with publication had evidence of selective outcome reporting. The median time to publication was 25 months (IQR 15–37) from the time of anticipated end date stated in the registry.

Conclusion
TB trials conducted in BRICS countries are collaborative, mostly drug treatment oriented, potentially affecting policies. Selective outcome reporting remains a problem both for prospectively and retrospectively registered trials, only small fraction of which gets to publication.

Leggi
Giugno 2022

Body mass index, proteinuria and total lymphocyte counts in predicting treatment responses among ART naïve individuals with HIV initiated on antiretroviral treatment in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 2019: a cohort study

Objectives
To explore the potential use of body mass index (BMI), proteinuria and total lymphocyte count changes in predicting immunological and virological response in individuals with HIV initiated on antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Design
Prospective cohort study.

Setting
Three urban HIV care and treatment centres in Dar es Salaam.

Participants
Individuals with HIV initiating ART.

Outcome measures
HIV viral load ≥1000 copies/mL (viral non-suppression) at 6 months after ART initiation.

Results
Of 215 (out of 220 enrolled) participants who returned for evaluation at 6 months, 147 (66.8%) were women. At 6 months of follow-up, 89.4% (76/85) of participants with sustained weight gain were virally suppressed compared with 31.8% (7/22) with sustained loss, p

Leggi
Giugno 2022

Cost-consequence analysis of COPD treatment according to NICE and GOLD recommendations compared with current clinical practice in the UK

Objectives
The objective of this study was to model the clinical and economic impact of adapting current clinical practice in the management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to treatment according to national and international guideline recommendations.

Design
Treatment mapping was undertaken to hypothetically redistribute patients from current clinical practice, representing actual prescribing patterns in the UK, to an alternative recommendation-based treatment scenario, representing prescribing in accordance with either National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [NG115] or Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2020 strategy.

Setting
Primary care practices in the UK (1-year time horizon).

Participants
Adults with COPD undergoing long-acting inhaler maintenance therapy in the UK (N=1 067,531).

Interventions
Inhaler maintenance therapy.

Outcome measures
Costs and clinical outcomes (type of treatment, rates of moderate and/or severe exacerbations, and mild-to-moderate and/or severe pneumonia events) were modelled for the two alternative pathways.

Results
Compared with current clinical practice, treating patients according to NICE guidance resulted in an estimated annual reduction in expenditure of £46.9 million, and an estimated annual reduction in expenditure of over £43.7 million when patients were treated according to GOLD 2020 strategy. Total cost savings of up to 8% annually could be achieved by treatment of patients according to either of these recommendations. Cost savings arose from a reduction in the rates of pneumonia, with an associated decrease in costs associated with antibiotic use and hospitalisation. Savings were achieved overall despite a small increase in the rate of exacerbations due to the redistribution of certain patients currently undergoing triple inhaled therapy to therapies not containing inhaled corticosteroids.

Conclusion
Redistribution of patients with COPD from current clinical practice to treatment according to published recommendations would provide substantial cost savings over the first year.

Leggi
Giugno 2022

Trends in sedentary behaviour and associated factors among adults in Mongolia: results from national cross-sectional surveys in 2009, 2013 and 2019

Objective
The study aimed to evaluate trends in the prevalence and correlates of sedentary behaviour (SB) in people aged 15–64 years from 2009 to 2019 in Mongolia.

Design
Repeat population-based cross-sectional study.

Setting
Nationally representative sample of persons living in the general community aged 15–64 years in Mongolia.

Participants
The sample included 17 780 people (15–64 years) who participated in Mongolia STEPS surveys 2009, 2013 or 2019.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: self-reported
SB, along with physical measurements, health status and health behaviour, and sociodemographic covariates. Multinomial logistic regression calculated OR with 95% CI for moderate and high SB, with low SB as reference category.

Results
Across study years, the proportion of low (

Leggi
Giugno 2022

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of facility-based essential maternal and child health services from March to August 2020 compared with pre-pandemic March-August 2019: a mixed-methods study in North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia

Introduction
Health systems are often weakened by public health emergencies that make it harder to access health services. We aimed to assess maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) service utilisation during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with prior to the pandemic.

Methods
We conducted a mixed study design in eight health facilities that are part of the Birhan field site in Amhara, Ethiopia and compared the trend of service utilisation in the first 6 months of COVID-19 with the corresponding time and data points of the preceding year.

Result
New family planning visits (43.2 to 28.5/month, p=0.014) and sick under 5 child visits (225.0 to 139.8/month, p=0.007) declined over the first 6 months of the pandemic compared with the same period in the preceding year. Antenatal (208.9 to 181.7/month, p=0.433) and postnatal care (26.6 to 19.8/month, p=0.155) visits, facility delivery rates (90.7 to 84.2/month, p=0.776), and family planning visits (313.3 to 273.4/month, p=0.415) declined, although this did not reach statistical significance. Routine immunisation visits (37.0 to 36.8/month, p=0.982) for children were maintained. Interviews with healthcare providers and clients highlighted several barriers to service utilisation during COVID-19, including fear of disease transmission, economic hardship, and transport service disruptions and restrictions. Enablers of service utilisation included communities’ decreased fear of COVID-19 and awareness-raising activities.

Conclusion
We observed a decline in essential MNCH services particularly in sick children and new family planning visits. To improve the resiliency of fragile health systems, resources are needed to continuously monitor service utilisation and clients’ evolving concerns during public health emergencies.

Leggi
Giugno 2022