Predicting 14-day readmission in middle-aged and elderly patients with pneumonia using emergency department data: a multicentre retrospective cohort study with a survival machine learning approach

Objectives
Unplanned pneumonia readmissions increase patient morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Among pneumonia patients, the middle-aged and elderly (≥45 years old) have a significantly higher risk of readmission compared with the young. Given that the 14-day readmission rate is considered a healthcare quality indicator, this study is the first to develop survival machine learning (ML) models using emergency department (ED) data to predict 14-day readmission risk following pneumonia-related admissions.

Design
A retrospective multicentre cohort study.

Setting
This study used the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database, including data from patients at three affiliated hospitals.

Participants
11 989 hospital admissions for pneumonia among patients aged ≥45 years admitted from 2014 to 2021.

Primary and secondary outcome measures
The dataset was randomly split into training (80%), validation (10%) and independent test (10%) sets. Input features included demographics, comorbidities, clinical events, vital signs, laboratory results and medical interventions. Four survival ML models—CoxNet, Survival Tree, Gradient Boosting Survival Analysis and Random Survival Forest—were developed and compared on the validation set. The best performance model was tested on the independent test set.

Results
The RSF model outperformed the other models. Validation on an independent test set confirmed the model’s robustness (C-index=0.710; AUC=0.693). The most important predictive features included creatinine levels, age, haematocrit levels, Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, and haemoglobin levels, with their predictive value changing over time.

Conclusions
The RSF model effectively predicts 14-day readmission risk among pneumonia patients. The ED data-based model allows clinicians to estimate readmission risk before ward admission or discharge from the ED, enabling timely interventions. Accurately predicting short-term readmission risk might also further support physicians in designing the optimal healthcare programme and controlling individual medical status to prevent readmissions.

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Efficacy of subanaesthetic esketamine on the prevention of postoperative delirium in older adult patients after cardiovascular surgery: protocol for a single-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (SEPDOC trial) in China

Introduction
Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious complication in older adult patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. Esketamine is known for its anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective properties. While it has shown preventive effects on POD in those not undergoing cardiovascular surgery, its efficacy in older adult patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery remains uncertain. Therefore, we herein aimed to evaluate the preventive effect of intraoperative subanaesthetic esketamine on POD in this specific population.

Methods and analysis
This single-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will enrol 778 patients aged 60–80 years undergoing open-heart cardiovascular surgery in China, from September 2023 to December 2025. The participants will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the following groups: the esketamine group and the control group. In the esketamine group, esketamine (2 mg/mL) will be administered intravenously at a dosage of 0.3 mg/kg over 10 min following tracheal intubation, followed by a continuous infusion at 0.15 mg/kg/h until the end of the surgery. Patients in the control group will receive a placebo following the same dosage and regimen. The incidence of POD will be the primary outcome and will be assessed twice daily from the first to the seventh postoperative day. The postoperative sleep quality, duration of postoperative mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital and intensive care unit stay will be the secondary outcomes.

Ethics and dissemination
Ethical approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of Fuwai Central China Cardiovascular Hospital (No. 2023068). Public disclosure is guaranteed post-trial, and the results will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Trial registration number
ChiCTR2300074395.

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Assessing motor control and movement quality in patients with non-specific low back pain: a scoping review and development of an ICF-based conceptual framework

Objective
To describe frequently investigated and recommended movement tasks, the underlying motor control functions and the domains of movement quality that are assessed in patients with non-specific low back pain (LBP).

Design
A scoping review. Preferred Reporting for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews and JBI methodology for scoping reviews were followed. A thematic approach was used in an iterative process to identify broader themes in the data synthesis.

Data sources
MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Library, COSMIN database and DiTA were systematically searched as part of a three-step search strategy (last search: 22 April 2025).

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies
Various types of evidence (qualitative and quantitative, primary and secondary) exploring and discussing movement tasks for assessing lumbopelvic motor control and movement quality in adult patients with non-specific LBP were considered. Grey literature was excluded.

Results
In total, 354 articles from 34 countries were included. Among them, 224 were primary research studies in laboratory settings, 68 studies in clinical settings, 7 meta-analyses, 13 systematic reviews and 42 articles classified as ‘other sources’. Overall, 20 movement task clusters were identified, with ‘hip movements in various positions’ and ‘forward bending’ being the two most common. A conceptual framework was constructed, consisting of five International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health-based broad motor control functions and 10 movement quality domains, namely flexibility, stability, accuracy, symmetry, speed, smoothness, adaptability, variability, efficiency and coordination.

Conclusion
The provided conceptual framework for motor control functions and movement quality domains can serve as a structural foundation for future research on the content validity of assessment approaches in the context of LBP.

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Correlates of HIV-TB co-infection and mental health of adults living in countries across sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

Introduction
HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are two of the most devastating disease conditions of public health concern globally. A co-infection of the two diseases poses serious health challenges to patients including mental health problems, ranging from mild to severe, with differing outcomes. This systematic review aims to assess the correlates of HIV-TB co-infection and mental health of adults living in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods and analysis
We will conduct comprehensive database and non-database searches for studies (published and unpublished). We will search Google Scholar, PubMed, CINAHL, LILACS, JSTOR, Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, PsycINFO, HINARI and African Journals Online from inception to 31 May 2025, without restriction on language. We will also search the grey literature, including conference proceedings, preprint repositories, databases of dissertations, WHO and governmental databases. In the event where there is a need to contact experts and corresponding authors for further information, the review team will do so to enrich the content of the review. At least three reviewers will independently undertake study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment using validated tools. We will resolve discrepancies or disagreements through discussion. We will analyse dichotomous data as risk ratio, OR or proportion and continuous data as mean difference with their SD; all estimates will be presented with their 95% CI. Where applicable, we will determine SD from point estimates and the appropriate denominators assuming a binomial distribution. The magnitude of heterogeneity between the included studies will be assessed quantitatively using the index of heterogeneity (I2 statistic). The I2 values of 25%, 50% and 75% will be considered to represent low, moderate and significant heterogeneity. The significance of heterogeneity will be determined by the p value of the I2 statistic, and a p value of

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Development and validation of a practical predicting model for early mortality in polytrauma patients: secondary analysis from Switzerland

Objectives
To establish a practical tool for the prediction of mortality in polytrauma patients.

Design
Secondary analysis of data from a public database.

Setting
A tertiary hospital in Switzerland.

Participants
2406 polytrauma patients were enrolled in this study, and the mean age was 44.4±19.9 years with 74.8% men.

Interventions
No.

Outcome measures
Logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between early deaths and variables. Nomogram model was established based on predictive factors. Model effectiveness was assessed by its discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. Causal mediation analysis was used to explore the relationships among risk factors.

Results
Independent predictive variables analysed by logistic regression were: age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), base excess (BE) and serum lactate. A nomogram model was established based on those risk factors, and the area under the curve of the nomogram for early death was 0.85, which was better than existing traumatic scorings. Besides, calibration plots and decision curve analysis demonstrated better performance than traumatic scorings with better internal validation. The effect of GCS on early death partly depended on BE and lactate.

Conclusion
Our study found that early mortality was associated with age, GCS, BE and serum lactate on admission, and lactate was more important in early death. A simple prediction model of early mortality in polytrauma patients was developed with accessible parameters assessed on admission.

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Systemic immune-inflammation index in critically ill patients with renal failure: a retrospective cohort study from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database

Objectives
Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a biomarker of inflammatory conditions; however, no scoring system has been evaluated for predicting mortality in patients with renal failure in intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to determine associations between SII level and mortality in patients with renal failure.

Design
Using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (V.2.0) database (USA), this retrospective study included 837 patients who were admitted to ICU with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), between 2008 and 2019.

Primary and secondary outcome measures
Cox proportional-hazards models were used to evaluate correlations between SII and outcomes, expressing results as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Regression analysis was used to determine associations between variables and SII.

Results
In total, 837 adult patients from a total of 76 943 patients admitted to ICU were included, comprising 59.60% males with mean age 62.27±14.9 years and mean BMI 28.36±7.43 Kg/m2. Using median SII (1628 X 109 /L) as cut-off value, high (≥ 1628X109 /L) SII was also associated with an increased risk of ICU mortality (HR 1.97 (95% CI 1.15 to 3.35), p=0.034), in-hospital mortality (HR 1.95 (95% CI 1.23 to 3.09), p=0.017) and total mortality (HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.58), p=0.024).

Conclusions
SII may predict mortality in critically ill patients admitted to ICU with ESRD. SII ≥ 1628×109 /L correlates significantly with increased ICU mortality, in-hospital mortality and total mortality.

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Gender and age disparities in cardiac immune-related adverse events associated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: a pharmacovigilance analysis of the FAERS database

Objectives
The cardiotoxicity of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has garnered significant clinical attention due to its high mortality rate. However, limited clinical research and inconsistent results have hindered a comprehensive understanding of this issue. This study seeks to elucidate gender and age differences in cardiac-related adverse reactions, aiming to offer scientific evidence to inform clinical practice.

Design
A retrospective pharmacovigilance study.

Setting
Based on the reports of ICIs in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System database from 2003–2023, we conducted a disproportionality analysis to identify cardiac immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and explored the correlation of age and gender with these adverse events.

Main outcome measures
The main cardiac irAEs were defined by four preferred terms: myocarditis, atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure and pericardial effusion. Both the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) and reporting odds ratio (ROR) are frequency methods. Data mining was performed using the PRR method, which assesses the relative risk of adverse drug reactions by comparing the frequency of reports associating a specific drug with a particular adverse reaction to the frequency of reports linking any drug to the same reaction. A higher PRR indicates a more robust adverse event signal, suggesting a stronger statistical association between the drug of interest and the target adverse event. In the research process, we primarily used the ROR and PRR from disproportionality analysis to screen for cardiac irAEs, while also elucidating the correlation between these reactions and factors such as age and gender.

Results
A total of 2033 adverse events were retrieved, and myocarditis was the most common cardiac irAEs. Gender disparities exist in the incidence of various adverse reactions to the same medication. Female patients need to be particularly vigilant for cardiac adverse events when taking atezolizumab, and male patients should be especially cautious for cardiac adverse events when using ipilimumab. Furthermore, ipilimumab produced a positive signal for pericardial effusion in the elderly group but not in the younger group, suggesting that elderly patients may be more susceptible to adverse reactions. Therefore, increased vigilance and careful monitoring are warranted during clinical administration of this medication to elderly patients.

Conclusion
Our study highlights the gender and age differences in cardiac adverse events with ICIs, providing valuable insights for clinical application.

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Association between anti-Müllerian hormone levels during pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes in infertile patients undergoing in vitro fertilisation/intracytoplasmic sperm injection: protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study

Introduction
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), recognised as the predominant aetiological factor in ovulatory dysfunction-related infertility, accounts for approximately 70% of anovulatory infertility cases. Patients with PCOS have significantly higher anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels than their counterparts undergoing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) for non-PCOS indications (eg, male/tubal factors). Several studies have suggested that a high AMH level is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes in IVF, particularly preterm delivery. However, most of these studies are retrospective studies, and their results are inconsistent. The majority of AMH measurements are conducted before pregnancy; however, AMH levels fluctuate dynamically during pregnancy. There is a pressing need for a well-structured prospective study to definitively establish whether high AMH levels during pregnancy are associated with IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) pregnancy outcomes in PCOS patients.

Methods and analysis
This prospective cohort study will be conducted at four reproductive medicine centres. The plan is to enrol 1,320 PCOS patients and 1320 non-PCOS women who undergo IVF/ICSI and achieve singleton clinical pregnancies. Serum samples will be collected at about 6 weeks of gestation to measure the serum AMH level. Follow-up visits will be conducted at 12, 28 and 37 weeks of gestation, delivery and 6 weeks after delivery to obtain information about pregnancy outcomes and complications. The primary outcome is preterm delivery.

Ethics and dissemination
The study was approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committee of Peking University Third Hospital (M2022618). Informed consent will be obtained from all patients. The results of this clinical study will be presented at scientific conferences and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

Trial registration number
ChiCTR2300068554.

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Access to mental healthcare for refugees, asylum seekers and migrants: an umbrella review of barriers

Objective
To identify the factors that prevent or hinder access to mental healthcare services for refugees, asylum seekers and migrants.

Design
An umbrella review was conducted on scoping reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and meta-syntheses published between January 2013 and December 2023.

Data sources
The databases searched (on 11 December 2023) included PubMed (via NCBI, including MEDLINE), Embase (via Embase.com), Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (via Cochrane Library). Search strings were categorised as concepts, wherein concept one was population (refugees, asylum seekers and migrants), concept two was mental health services and concept three was the type of review (systematic review, meta-analysis, scoping review or literature review).

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies
Reviews were included if study participants were refugees, asylum seekers and migrants. Additionally, mental health-providing services or organisations and mental health providers were included. Excluded study participants were people with a migration background and second- or third-generation migrants.

Data extraction and synthesis
Two independent reviewers screened the identified articles on title and abstract. The 48 full-text articles were assessed in detail against inclusion and exclusion criteria by the two researchers and one person from the Belgian Superior Health Council.

Results
18 reviews were included. The extensive literature review identified various factors that prevent and restrict access to mental healthcare services for individuals with a recent migration background. Among the eight concepts of barriers, the most frequently mentioned were stigma and stigmatisation, language and communication challenges, financial obstacles, cultural barriers (including religious beliefs and faith) and issues with service delivery. Additionally, differences in culture, education and gender were recognised as factors limiting access to mental health services. Recommendations for policy and practice included implementing a multidisciplinary and multi-agency approach to facilitate access for newly arriving migrants and refugees, increasing financial allocations for translation and interpretation services, enabling policies to promote mental health utilisation and introducing educational programmes at the grassroot level among migrants and refugees.

Conclusion
Policy implementation should address the identified barriers and be routinely assessed for efficacy in service delivery and uptake. Future research should focus on enabling the utilisation of mental healthcare services among migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees.

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