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Circulation, Volume 150, Issue 21, Page 1741-1744, November 19, 2024.
Cherubini (Siedp) “evitabili in oltre 450 bimbi ogni anno”
Background
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is plagued by failures across the cancer care continuum, leading to frequent late-stage diagnoses and high mortality. We evaluated the effectiveness of mailed outreach invitations plus patient navigation to promote HCC screening process completion in patients with cirrhosis.
Methods
Between April 2018 and September 2021, we conducted a multicentre pragmatic randomised clinical trial comparing mailed outreach plus patient navigation for HCC screening (n=1436) versus usual care with visit-based screening (n=1436) among patients with cirrhosis at three US health systems. Our primary outcome was screening process completion over a 36-month period, and our secondary outcome was the proportion of time covered (PTC) by screening. All patients were included in intention-to-screen analyses.
Results
All 2872 participants (median age 61.3 years; 32.3% women) were included in intention-to-screen analyses. Screening process completion was observed in 6.6% (95% CI: 5.3% to 7.9%) of patients randomised to outreach and 3.3% (95% CI: 2.4% to 4.3%) of those randomised to usual care (OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.92). The intervention increased HCC screening process completion across most subgroups including age, sex, race and ethnicity, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class and health system. PTC was also significantly higher in the outreach arm than usual care (mean 37.5% vs 28.2%; RR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.35). Despite screening underuse, most HCC in both arms were detected at an early stage.
Conclusion
Mailed outreach plus navigation significantly increased HCC screening process completion versus usual care in patients with cirrhosis, with a consistent effect across most examined subgroups. However, screening completion remained suboptimal in both arms, underscoring a need for more intensive interventions.
Trial registration number
NCT02582918.
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a significant global health problem, and its incidence is expected to exceed 1 million new HCC annually by 2025.1 The reported 3-year survival rate for advanced-stage HCC is less than 17%, while 70% of patients diagnosed with early-stage HCC can achieve 5-year survival.2 Despite well-established guidelines and the clear benefits of early detection, the meta-analysis results (29 papers, 1 18 799 patients) showed that only 24% of individuals at risk for developing HCC were screened.3 Efforts to surmount barriers at patient, provider and healthcare levels have shown a minimal screening rate increase over time.3 4 One of the reasons for the disappointing results might be the fact that authors focused on individual barriers, rather than considering the screening failure the result of the interplay of different factors. Additionally, the published studies have the following limitations, detailed reasons for…
The absolute number of annual cases of gastric cancer in Europe is rising. The Council of the European Union has recommended implementation of gastric cancer screening for countries or regions with a high gastric cancer incidence and death rates. However, as of 2024 no organised gastric cancer screening programme has been launched in Europe.
There are several ways to decrease gastric cancer burden, but the screen and treat strategy for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) seems to be the most appropriate for Europe. It has to be noted that increased use of antibiotics would be associated with this strategy.
Only organised population-based cancer screening is recommended in the European Union, therefore gastric cancer screening also is expected to fulfil the criteria of an organised screening programme. In this respect, several aspects of screening organisation need to be considered before full implementation of gastric cancer prevention in Europe; the age range of the target group, test types, H. pylori eradication regimens and surveillance strategies are among them. Currently, ongoing projects (GISTAR, EUROHELICAN, TOGAS and EUCanScreen) are expected to provide the missing evidence. Feedback from the decision-makers and the potential target groups, including vulnerable populations, will be important to planning the programme.
This paper provides an overview of the recent decisions of the European authorities, the progress towards gastric cancer implementation in Europe and expected challenges. Finally, a potential algorithm for gastric cancer screening in Europe is proposed.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4139194-A4139194, November 12, 2024. Background:In the U.S., about 8% of adults never received cholesterol screening. Although machine learning (ML) has been used to develop decision tools for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk prediction, its application in behavioral forecasting has not yet been explored in the context of cholesterol screening behaviors. This study aimed to examine the performance and accuracy of ML algorithms in forecasting cholesterol screening behaviors in adults after age 50.Methods:This analysis used deidentified data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) 2004-2018. HRS is a longitudinal survey among 23,000 households in the U.S. Participants were excluded from the current analysis if they passed away by 2019, ever had ASCVD or stroke, were under age 50 at baseline, or had missing data in self-reported cholesterol screening. In total, 7176 participants (mean age [SD]=62 [8]) met the inclusion criteria; participants were randomly split into a training set (80%) and a testing set (20%). The synthetic minority oversampling technique was used to solve the imbalance distribution of the rare event. Five ML algorithms were used: random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and logistic regression. Accuracy, AUROC, and positive predictive value (PPV) were used to compare model performance. The average gain was evaluated for feature importance in the demographic and health domains.Results:In total, 232 (3.2%) respondents did not receive any cholesterol screening from 2008 to 2018. Experiments with five ML algorithms suggested that XGBoost with deeper trees and learning rate performed better in classifying those who did not screen for cholesterol levels over 10 years. Adding prior cholesterol screening history (2004-2006) into the model significantly improved model performance. Hypertension, self-rated health, and smoking were the major health features, while insurance, poverty, and work status were the major demographic features in the predictive model (accuracy=0.97; AUROC=0.88; PPV=0.42).Conclusion:Findings underscore the potential utility of ML models in predicting cholesterol screening behaviors after age 50. This could be the basis for developing decision tools for clinicians to identify those with a lower chance of cholesterol screening or make reminders accordingly. The low-cost predictive model might improve the uptake of preventive screening behaviors in middle-aged and older adults.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4145826-A4145826, November 12, 2024. Background:Previous studies have shown that AF screening in at-risk populations can reduce stroke incidence. However, non-targeted screening approaches often result in high false positive rates, placing an unnecessary burden on the healthcare system. In contrast, artificial intelligence-guided screening has been demonstrated to increase diagnostic yield in large prospective clinical trials. This approach, however, requires recording an ECG and a large-scale dataset for model training. Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis has proven effective in deciphering key heart dynamics. By analyzing HRV as interrelated dynamic systems, it may be possible to facilitate targeted AF screening using wearable devices that measure heart rate.The Koopman operator, used for data-driven modeling of interrelated dynamic systems, has been shown to accurately predict complex phenomena in chaotic systems such as climate forecasting and drug adverse reaction prediction. This is achieved by utilizing common characteristics of the systems for most model parameters, with only a small fraction of the parameters being specific to a certain system.Methods:Long ( >10 hour) records from 361 individuals (AFDB, LTAFDB) and healthy individuals’ datasets from PhysioNet and THEW were analyzed for inter-beat intervals. The unified dataset was then split into 94 training, 17 validation, and 250 test set patients. Recordings from the training set were used to train both the common and specific parts of the interrelated dynamic systems model for each patient, along with a shared small neural network classifying patients into low and high risk for AF based on the unique (not shared between patients) singular values of the dynamic system model. Patient-specific dynamic system models were then fitted for the validation and test sets to calculate the patient dynamic singular values, which were used to classify patients into low and high risk for AF groups.Results:Atrial fibrillation occurred in 48 of 202 (23%) patients classified as low risk and 35 of 48 (72.9%) patients classified as high risk (odds ratio 8.63, 95% CI 4.23-17.64), yielding 72.9% sensitivity with 76.2% specificity.Conclusion:In this retrospective analysis, classification of the dynamic system model singular values identified patients at high risk for atrial fibrillation from sinus rhythm period.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4144583-A4144583, November 12, 2024. Donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) has been increasingly used to detect acute rejection (AR). We aimed to compare our institutional dd-cfDNA results to previously published adult and pediatric dd-cfDNA AR cutoffs. We also hypothesized that in the absence of AR, elevated dd-cfDNA would be associated with CAV and positive DSA.Patients (pt) < 18 years at transplant with >1 dd-cfDNA between 2021-2023 were included. Using dd-cfDNA levels from this cohort, sensitivity, specificity, NPV, and PPV were calculated. False positives and false negatives (FN) were determined using published dd-cfDNA thresholds. AR was defined as decision-to-treat with increased immunosuppression, which was independent of dd-cfDNA in our cohort. In pt without AR,t-test was used to compare the means of dd-cfDNA levels in pt with and without DSA. χ2testing was then performed to evaluate the association between dd-cfDNA levels above and below 0.2% and the presence/absence of DSA and CAV. DSA was defined as allele-specific DSA identified by single antigen bead with mean fluorescence intensity >1000, and CAV as any disease by angiography.There were 379 samples among 163 pt, a median of 2 samples per pt, and 32 samples obtained at time of AR. Performance of dd-cfDNA in our cohort vs published dd-cfDNA thresholds is shown in Table 1. The FN rate ranged from 16 to 37% as the dd-cfDNA threshold increased. Mean dd-cfDNA was higher in patients with positive DSA versus those without (0.83% vs 0.19%, p0.2% were associated with a higher prevalence of positive DSA (n=66) (48% vs 13%, p
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4144566-A4144566, November 12, 2024. Introduction:Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) remains a leading cause of death among young individuals, often occurring without prior symptoms. Public confidence in recognizing SCA warning signs, understanding risk factors, and using cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and Automated External Defibrillators (AEDs) is generally low. The Eric Paredes Save A Life Foundation addresses this gap by offering free cardiac screenings and educational sessions. This abstract evaluates the foundation’s impact on participants’ confidence in these critical areas.Goals:The primary objectives were to enhance participants’ confidence in identifying SCA warning signs and risk factors, performing CPR, using AEDs during cardiac emergencies, and communicating youth heart health concerns to healthcare providers.Methods:Volunteer-led prevention screening sessions were conducted, incorporating educational components on SCA warning signs, risk factors, and hands-only CPR and AED training. Post-session surveys were administered to 1,123 participants to assess their confidence levels in these areas.Results:The screening sessions significantly increased participants’ confidence. Specifically, 96% of participants reported heightened confidence in recognizing SCA warning signs and understanding risk factors. Additionally, 94% felt more assured in discussing youth heart health with providers. Confidence in performing CPR during a cardiac emergency rose to 92%, while confidence in using an AED reached 89%. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the sessions in empowering individuals with essential life-saving skills.Conclusions:The Eric Paredes Save A Life Foundation’s prevention screening sessions are highly effective in improving participants’ confidence in recognizing SCA warning signs, understanding risk factors, and using CPR and AEDs. The substantial increase in confidence levels underscores the importance of community-based education and training programs in reducing SCA-related fatalities among youth. These findings support the need for ongoing and expanded initiatives to further enhance public health outcomes and preparedness for cardiac emergencies.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4140219-A4140219, November 12, 2024. Background:Poor healthcare access results in late- or non-diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD), perpetuating the burden of RHD in low-resource settings. The ADUNU program, a partnership with the Ugandan Ministry of Health in Kitgum, Uganda, aims to improve RHD case detection through decentralized screening led by primary care nurses, who independently perform and interpret brief screening echocardiograms using handheld echocardiography.Hypothesis:We hypothesized ADUNU’s simplified screening protocol would achieve sensitivity and specificity greater than 80% on confirmatory evaluation.Aim:To determine the health system impact of deploying a novel RHD screening protocol into the public health system in Uganda through a cross-sectional study of diagnostic accuracy.Methods:Primary healthcare nurses, certified to perform echocardiographic screening using a single parasternal long axis view in 2D and color Doppler, integrated screening into their clinical and outreach workflows. Community members with positive screens (mitral regurgitation jet ≥2cm or aortic regurgitation jet ≥1cm) were referred for confirmatory echocardiograms at the District Hospital. A random subset with negative screens were recruited for confirmatory echocardiograms at the time of screening as well. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, accuracy, and agreement (Cohen’s kappa) were calculated between the screening protocol and the confirmatory results.Results:Between May 2023 and April 2024, 3020 community screenings (ages 5-70 years) were conducted by 19 certified nurses. Among 113 positive screens, 61 (53.9%) were confirmed to have RHD. Among 430 negative screens, 14 (3.3%) had RHD. Screening sensitivity was 82.4% (95% CI 72.2-89.4%) and specificity 89.1% (85.9-91.6%). Positive and negative predictive values were 54.5% (45.2-63.4%) and 97.0% (94.9-98.2%). Likelihood ratios were 7.55(+) and 0.19(-). Accuracy was 88.3% (85.2 – 91.4%) and kappa was 0.59 (0.49-0.68).Conclusions:ADUNU’s novel approach to RHD active case finding achieved acceptable diagnostic performance. Nurse-led RHD screening programs that are integrated into routine clinical care shows potential for use in a comprehensive public health program. Very few RHD cases were missed, and under two referrals were generated for every positive case, an acceptable false positive rate. Further economic evaluation is underway to understand the budgetary impact and cost-effectiveness of this program.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4144973-A4144973, November 12, 2024. Background:Cardiac calcium, which includes coronary and extra-coronary calcification, is often incidentally found in chest CT scans performed for various reasons. Despite its prognostic value, manual quantification of cardiac calcium in non-gated chest CT images is labor-intensive.Goals:This retrospective study aims to perform automatic quantification and scoring of cardiac calcium in non-contrast-enhanced chest CTs. The objective is to determine associations between automatic calcium scoring and outcomes such as all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-fatal stroke.Methods:We conducted a nationwide cohort study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) from 2016 to 2022. Patients under 20 years old, with a diagnosis of malignancy, or with outcome events before the CT acquisition were excluded. HeaortaNet 1.0, a validated AI model, was used for cardiac calcium scoring. Comorbidities were determined using ICD diagnostic codes for ≥2 consecutive outpatient visits within the year before the index date. Outcomes were censored at the first occurrence of mortality or relevant ICD codes for MI or stroke.Results:The retrospective cohort included 279,415 patients (56.37% male, mean age 60.31±16.54). All-cause mortality occurred in 12.82% of patients within a 3-year follow-up. The 3-year incidence rates of non-fatal MI and non-fatal stroke were 0.86% and 2.07%, respectively. Multivariate-adjusted Cox hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for any composite outcome were 1.51 (1.46-1.57), 2.09 (2.01-2.17), 2.63 (2.53-2.74), and 3.37 (3.24-3.50) for cardiac calcium scores of 1-100, 101-400, 401-1000, and >1000, compared to a score of 0. Adjusted Cox hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.62 (1.56-1.69), 2.29 (2.19-2.39), 2.91 (2.78-3.04), and 3.80 (3.64-3.96) for scores of 1-100, 101-400, 401-1000, and >1000, compared to a score of 0.Conclusion:AI-enabled opportunistic screening of non-contrast chest CT for cardiac calcium scoring is associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events. This is the first large-scale cohort study to use an AI model for comprehensive cardiac calcium screening.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4121454-A4121454, November 12, 2024. Introduction:Recent research has shown that AI is able to assess biological aging and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using chest radiographs. However, the lack of explainability of such deep learning algorithms hinders clinical utility and adoption. This motivates the current study which searches for and tests the use of machine extractable quantitative features in chest radiographs to predict CVD risk in population screening.Method:Chest radiograph measurements characterizing cardiomediastinal geometry, aortic calcification and tortuosity were handpicked for development of a segmentation-based feature extraction algorithm. The algorithm was applied on the PLCO lung screening dataset for analysis. The association between measurement-based imaging features, clinical characteristics (age, sex, BMI, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes, liver disease) with CVD mortality and 10-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were analysed by using proportional hazard regression, with feature selection done by LASSO.Result:Of 29,453 eligible subjects, 5693 subjects from a single study centre were used for fitting of all models. The median follow-up time was 19 years. A total of 32 imaging features were extracted and analysed. For both 10-year MACE and CVD mortality, model using imaging features, age, and sex performed similarly to model using conventional risk factors, and a deep learning chest radiograph CVD risk model. Two imaging features, mediastinal width at valve-level [HR 1.36 (1.23-1.50)] and maximal lateral displacement of descending aorta [HR 1.29 (1.18-1.42)] were found to be prognostic. To the best of our knowledge, these features have not been reported previously.Conclusion:Quantitative imaging features can predict CVD risk in chest radiograph similar to deep learning models while providing feature interpretability and explainability. Two novel imaging features prognostic of CVD risk were found and shown to be complementary to conventional risk factors.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4112869-A4112869, November 12, 2024. Introduction:Sitosterolemia, a hereditary disorder marked by elevated plant sterol levels, presents diagnostic challenges due to its similarity to other lipid disorders. The development of the Sitosterolemia Risk Prediction Scale (SRPS) aims to address this by synthesising genetic, clinical, and dietary data into a coherent risk assessment model.Research Question:We propose that a structured risk scale, integrating diverse factors known to affect sitosterolemia, can significantly improve the accuracy of predicting the disorder. The SRPS is hypothesised to facilitate early detection and inform targeted interventions.Aim:The primary aim is to conceptualise and outline the SRPS, which categorises individuals into risk categories based on a point system reflecting genetic predispositions, clinical symptoms, dietary habits, and response to treatments. This scale seeks to enhance the clinical identification of sitosterolemia, promoting timely and personalised management strategies.Methods:A detailed table was generated to present the SRPS, categorising risk factors into genetic, clinical, dietary, and response to treatment. This innovative method allowed for the efficient synthesis and visualisation of complex data.Results:The SRPS table methodically organizes risk factors into low (0-2 points), moderate (3-5 points), and high (6+ points) categories. This stratification guides further diagnostic actions, ranging from exploring alternative causes of hyperlipidemia to necessitating comprehensive genetic and lipid analyses.Conclusion:The SRPS represents an innovative framework for assessing sitosterolemia risk, highlighting the potential benefits of integrating genetic, clinical, and dietary information. It further underscores the importance of a multifactorial approach in the early detection and management of sitosterolemia.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4138273-A4138273, November 12, 2024. Background:Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) causes 305,000 premature annual deaths, and education is one of the strategies to diminish disease burden. International RHD foundations aim do provide preventive and control efforts for RHD. We aimed to assess the acceptability and gain of knowledge of a series of education flipcharts presented during screening programs in high-burden areas of Brazil.Methods:Four flipcharts (“Introduction to rheumatic fever (RF) and RHD”, “RHD and pregnancy”, “RHD and surgery” and “RHD community awareness”) were developed over 3 years and taught during 36 months to patients, community, health and education professionals in Minas Gerais state. Training included in-person interactions and virtual workshops. Pre and post-training questionnaires were applied through an online and printed surveys in 2021 and 2022, and post-education evaluations were conducted from January 2023 to April, 2024.Results:Flipchart training was successfully delivered to 112 education professionals, 574 health providers and 598 community members (N=1284): 899 (70%) were enrolled in primary care, and 1109 (86%) responded the surveys. Among respondents of the survey for health and education professionals (N=589), 240 (41%) had been educated about RHD in the previous year. 569 (96%) learned any new information; the content was all new for 21 (4%). Nearly all professionals reported that flipcharts could improve patients’ lives (571, 97%) and felt confident to use the tool with someone with no knowledge about RHD (533, 91%); 86% of the teachers said they would use flipcharts as educational tools. In the survey for community / schoolchildren (N=520) only 128 (25%) respondents had previous education on RHD, 510 (98%) reported that learned new information, and content was completely new for 242 (47%). A total of 430 (83%) individuals reported that they will discuss RHD with families and community. All qualitative written reports were positive. In 2021/2022, 218/485 (45%) health and education professionals responded the pre/post questionnaire. Knowledge about RHD increased after training: RF as the cause of RHD (56% vs 86%), use of Benzathine Penicillin G (50% vs 97%), frequency of antibiotic prophylaxis (32% vs 90%) and overall moderate or expert understanding of RF or RHD (30% vs 82%).Conclusion:Flipchart educational sessions about RHD had a very positive acceptability in high-risk Brazilian populations, with remarkable gain of knowledge for health professionals.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4138955-A4138955, November 12, 2024. Introduction:Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the most common acquired heart disorder in children and adolescents worldwide. We developed and validated an automated artificial intelligence (AI)-guided RHD screening algorithm adapted for point-of-care ultrasonography (POCUS) in school-aged children.Methods:We employed a cross-domain transfer learning approach, in which a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) was first trained to detect structural RHD deformation of the mitral or aortic valves in 244,523 videos, representing all views from 5,614 adult transthoracic echocardiograms (1:5 age and sex-matched cases and controls; median age 69 [58-80] years, 76.4% female) in a large US health system. The model was fine-tuned for stage ≥B (“definite”) RHD in 21,472 POCUS videos (2D parasternal and apical acquisitions) from 5,525 studies (75% training, 25% validation) in a pediatric screening program (median age 11 [IQR 10-13] years, 54.6% female) in Brazilian low-income schools. Testing was performed in a held-out set of 1,966 parasternal long-axis (PLAX) videos from 1,138 studies in Brazil (14 [1.2%] with stage ≥B RHD) as well as in an external pediatric screening set in Uganda consisting of 249 videos from 96 studies (34 [35.4%] with stage ≥B RHD) (Fig. 1).Results:Our model (Fig. 2) achieved a study-level AUROC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of 0.88 across the held-out/external testing sets for identifying stage ≥B RHD from cardiac POCUS (Fig. 3A). On a video-level the model learned a continuous spectrum of phenotypes on PLAX acquisitions spanning stage ≥B (“definite”) and stage A (“borderline”) cases, ranging from a median video-level AI probability of 0.13 [0.01-0.73] for stage ≥B to 0.00 [0.00-0.01] for non-RHD POCUS (Fig. 3B). At the threshold that maximized Youden’s J in the held-out Brazil set, our algorithm’s performance in the set from Uganda showed 97% recall (sensitivity), a positive predictive value (precision) of 46%, and a negative predictive value of 95%.Conclusions:A transfer learning approach that employs multi-view learning achieves excellent performance for RHD on single-view two-dimensional cardiac POCUS without Doppler. Our study suggests a scalable approach to AI-enabled RHD detection with images that can be acquired by individuals with modest training.
Circulation, Volume 150, Issue Suppl_1, Page A4131439-A4131439, November 12, 2024. Background:Evidence linking social isolation to cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality has grown in recent years. Still, information on how this may manifest in real world settings and its implications for screening practices is limited. In 2019, our large national integrated health care system implemented screening for social isolation as part of a broader universal social risk assessment. This repository of screening data was joined to administrative claims to test these associations in real world data and explore differences by demographic and medical factors.Methods:Social isolation responses recorded from 2019-2022 were included for a cohort of adult health plan members with documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We selected a single random assessment for each member and retained any other responses for sensitivity analyses. Cohort members had at least 10 months of enrollment surrounding assessment date for use as the baseline period and were followed for 365 days. We used cox proportional hazards regression with right censoring for coverage gaps to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality conferred by social isolation. We used Poisson regression to model the rate of inpatient stays.Results:There were 881 deaths among 7,484 members (18% of those with social isolation; 11% of those without). The isolated group skewed less male (54% vs. 65%, p
