Incidence and risk factors for glaucoma and its clinical, mental health and economic impact in an elderly population: a longitudinal study

Objectives
To investigate the incidence and determinants of glaucoma in an elderly Chinese population, and clinical, mental health and economic impacts.

Design
This nationally representative, longitudinal study assessed self-reported 6-year (from 2011 to 2018) incident glaucoma diagnosis by a physician and measured biological, clinical and socioeconomical participant characteristics at baseline and endline.

Setting
In the first stage, 150 county-level units from across China were randomly selected with a probability-proportional-to-size sampling technique from a frame containing all county-level units nationwide. The sample was stratified by region and within region by urban district or rural county and per capita gross domestic product. The final sample of 150 counties included 30 out of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China.

Participants
Consenting, community-dwelling Chinese persons aged 50 years and older.

Primary and secondary outcome measures
Incident glaucoma incidence (primary), factors associated with incident glaucoma (secondary), impact of glaucoma (secondary).

Results
Among 9973 individuals, 3.4% reported a glaucoma diagnosis between 2011 and 2018; Central China had the highest incidence (3.95%) and Eastern China the lowest (2.64%) between 2011 and 2018. Those diagnosed with glaucoma during 2011 and 2018 were of older age (beta coefficient: 0.050, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.001, p

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Model-based estimation of thyroid cancer incidence from ultrasound examinations in the Fukushima Health Management Survey: estimated results considering the non-examinees in the first, second and third rounds of the cohort study

Background
In October 2011, the Fukushima prefectural government started a thyroid ultrasound examination (TUE) as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The proportion of examinees is an important factor when interpreting the results.

Objectives
To construct models that assess the relationship between the proportion of non-examinees and the characteristics of eligible participants in the first-round to third-round TUEs. Using these models, estimate the number of thyroid cancer cases in the entire population for each survey, considering non-examinees.

Design
Model-based estimation using cohort survey data.

Settings
Fukushima Health Management Survey from 2011 to 2017.

Participants
Children and adolescents aged 18 years or younger (363 342 individuals) who were identified through resident registration records, resided in Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident, and were eligible for each TUE.

Outcome measures
Modelling the relationship between non-examinee status and individual characteristics, and estimating the number of cases in the entire population for each survey round.

Results
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the constructed models ranged from 0.815 to 0.905. In the first-round, second-round and third-round TUEs, 115, 70 and 30 cases were observed among 294 921, 258 771 and 208 955 examinees, respectively, whereas the estimated number of cases in the entire population including the non-examinees was 177.3 (95% CI 167.0 to 188.0), 126.3 (95% CI 106.3 to 150.2) and 49.7 (95% CI 35.8 to 71.9), respectively.

Conclusions
These estimates were higher than the actual number of observed cases because they considered non-examinees. Our model for non-examination showed a high discriminant accuracy and was considered to capture well the factors that resulted in non-examinees. This study’s findings provide valuable information for studies considering the number of potential thyroid cancer cases among non-examinees and may facilitate appropriate interpretation of reports and prospective survey outcome management.

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