Prognostic prediction models for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC): a protocol for systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis

Introduction
Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is increasingly prevalent and has significantly heterogeneous risks of survival for diagnosed individuals due to the inter-related risk factors. Precise prediction of the risk of survival for an individual patient with OPSCC presents a useful adjunct to therapeutic decision-making regarding the management of OPSCC. The aim of this systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis is to assess prognostic prediction models for OPSCC and lay a foundation for future research programmes to develop and validate prognostic prediction models for OPSCC.

Methods and analysis
This protocol will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses Protocol statement. Based on predefined criteria, electronic databases including MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) will be searched for relevant studies without language restrictions from inception of databases to present. This study will systematically review published prognostic prediction models for survival outcomes in patients with OPSCC, describe their characteristics, compare performance and assess risk of bias and real-world clinical utility. Selection of eligible studies, data extraction and critical appraisal will be conducted independently by two reviewers. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreements. Included studies will be systematically summarised using appropriate tools designed for prognostic prediction modelling studies. Risk of bias and quality of studies will be assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool and the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis. Performance measures of these models will be pooled and analysed with meta-analyses if feasible.

Ethics and dissemination
This review will be conducted completely based on published data, so approval from an ethics committee or written consent is not required. The results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication.

PROSPERO registration number
CRD42023400272.

Leggi
Ottobre 2023

From clinical variables to multiomics analysis: a margin morphology-based gross classification system for hepatocellular carcinoma stratification

Objective
Selecting interventions for patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a challenge. Despite gross classification being proposed as a potential prognostic predictor, its widespread use has been restricted due to inadequate studies with sufficient patient numbers and the lack of established mechanisms. We sought to investigate the prognostic impacts on patients with HCC of different gross subtypes and assess their corresponding molecular landscapes.

Design
A prospective cohort of 400 patients who underwent hepatic resection for solitary HCC was reviewed and analysed and gross classification was assessed. Multiomics analyses were performed on tumours and non-tumour tissues from 49 patients to investigate the mechanisms underlying gross classification. Inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW) was used to control for confounding factors.

Results
Overall 3-year survival rates varied significantly among the four gross subtypes (type I: 91%, type II: 80%, type III: 74.6%, type IV: 38.8%). Type IV was found to be independently associated with poor prognosis in both the entire cohort and the IPTW cohort. The four gross subtypes exhibited three distinct transcriptional modules. Particularly, type IV tumours exhibited increased angiogenesis and immune score as well as decreased metabolic pathways, together with highest frequency of TP53 mutations. Patients with type IV HCC may benefit from adjuvant intra-arterial therapy other than the other three subtypes. Accordingly, a modified trichotomous margin morphological gross classification was established.

Conclusion
Different gross types of HCC showed significantly different prognosis and molecular characteristics. Gross classification may aid in development of precise individualised diagnosis and treatment strategies for HCC.

Leggi
Ottobre 2023

Correction: Pan-ERBB kinase inhibition augments CDK4/6 inhibitor efficacy in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Zhou J, Wu Z, Zhang Z, et al. Pan-ERBB kinase inhibition augments CDK4/6 inhibitor efficacy in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Gut 2022;71:665–75. doi:10.1136/gutjnl-2020-323276 Following publication of the original article, authors identified an error in figure 3B, specifically: TE9 cell line total HER3, total AKT and total ERK lanes appear to be misused. The correct figure is presented below. This correction does not affect the result and conclusions of the study. We apologise for this error and any inconvenience caused. Figure 3 Pan ERBB and CDK4/6 pathway dual inhibition demonstrated efficacy in ESCC. (A) Images showing crystal violet staining of representative squamous carcinoma cell lines on treatment with afatinib (20 nM), palbociclib (500 nM), the combination or with DMSO control for 7–10 days. Data from one representative experiment are presented (n=2). (B) Immunoblot analysis of genes involved in ERBB signalling pathway and cell-cycle pathway in TE9, TE11 and KYSE180 cells…

Leggi
Ottobre 2023

Efficacy and safety of lenvatinib-transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation sequential therapy followed by surgical resection for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Up-to-7 criteria: a study protocol for a multicentre, single-arm, prospective study

Introduction
The feasibility and efficacy of surgical resection following systemic therapy for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Up-to-7 criteria is unclear. The combination of lenvatinib (LEN) and transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation (TACE), termed LEN–TACE sequential therapy, has shown a high response rate and survival benefit in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. This trial aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of LEN–TACE sequential therapy and the feasibility of surgical resection for intermediate-stage HCC beyond the Up-to-7 criteria.

Methods and analysis
This is a multicentre, single-arm, prospective clinical trial. Thirty patients with intermediate-stage HCC beyond the Up-to-7 criteria will be enrolled. Patients eligible for this study will undergo LEN–TACE sequential therapy in which LEN is administered for 4 weeks, followed by TACE, and then further LEN for another 4 weeks. Patients will be assessed for efficacy of LEN–TACE sequential therapy and resectability, and surgical resection will be performed if the HCC is considered radically resectable. The primary outcome of this study is the resection rate after LEN–TACE sequential therapy. The secondary outcomes are the objective response rate of LEN–TACE sequential therapy, safety, curative resection rate, overall survival and recurrence-free survival.

Ethics and dissemination
This trial was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Hiroshima University, Japan (approval no. CRB210003), and has been registered with the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials (jRCTs061220007). The results of this study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and shared with the scientific community at international conferences.

Trial registration number
jRCTs061220007 (https://jrct.niph.go.jp/latest-detail/jRCTs061220007).

Leggi
Ottobre 2023

Hepatectomy combined with apatinib and camrelizumab for CNLC stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma: a phase II trial protocol

Introduction
Current clinical guidelines recommend systematic antitumour therapy as the primary treatment option for patients with stage IIIb hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the China liver cancer (CNLC) staging criteria. Several different targeted therapeutics have been applied in combination with immunotherapeutic regimens to date in patients with advanced HCC. The present study was developed to evaluate the relative safety and efficacy of hepatectomy of HCC in combination with targeted apatinib treatment and immunotherapeutic camrelizumab treatment CNLC-IIIb stage HCC patients with the goal of providing evidence regarding the potential value of this therapeutic regimen in individuals diagnosed with advanced HCC.

Methods and analysis
This is a multicentre phase II trial with single-arm in which patients undergo hepatectomy in combination with targeted treatment (apatinib) and immunotherapy (camrelizumab). Patients will undergo follow-up every 2–3 months following treatment initiation to record any evidence of disease progression and adverse event incidence for a minimum of 24 months following the discontinuation of treatment until reaching study endpoint events or trial termination. The primary endpoint for this study is patient mortality.

Ethics and dissemination
This study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital (KS2022[124]). The results of this study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Trial registration number
NCT05062837.

Leggi
Settembre 2023

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adding transarterial chemoembolisation to lenvatinib as first-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in China

Objective
The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib (LEN) plus transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) (LEN-TACE) and LEN alone to treat advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.

Design
A three-state partitioned survival model using clinical survival data from a phase III LAUNCH trial, a 5-year time horizon for costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was constructed to analyse the cost-effectiveness of LEN-TACE. Clinical inputs were extracted from the LAUNCH trial, with outcomes extrapolated using standard and flexible parametric survival models. Costs and utilities derived from published literature were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the model.

Setting
The Chinese healthcare system perspective.

Participants
A hypothetical Chinese cohort of patients with advanced HCC.

Interventions
TACE plus LEN versus LEN.

Primary outcome measure
Costs, QALYs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

Results
Base-case analysis revealed that LEN-TACE would be cost-effective in China at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $37 663 per QALYs, with improved effectiveness of 0.382 QALYs and additional cost of $12 151 (ICER: $31 808 per QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that LEN-TACE had a 93.5% probability of cost-effectiveness at WTP threshold of three times gross domestic product per capital ($37 663). One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the duration of LEN treatment in both two arms, utility of progression-free survival and the cost of TACE had a greater impact on the stability of ICER values. Scenario analyses results were in line with base-case analysis.

Conclusions
LEN-TACE might be a cost-effective strategy compared with LEN for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced HCC in China.

Leggi
Settembre 2023

Refinement and validation of a comprehensive clinical diagnostic model (GAMAD) based on gender, age, multitarget circulating tumour DNA methylation signature and commonly used serological biomarkers for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre, prospective observational study protocol

Introduction
Prompt detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic liver diseases is critical for enhancing prognosis. Existing imaging techniques and serum markers fall short of clinical needs. This study aims to establish a non-invasive diagnostic model for early HCC detection in the Chinese population.

Methods and analysis
This prospective, multicentre, observational study will enrol 2000 participants, including HCC patients, those with chronic liver diseases (hepatitis, cirrhosis and benign liver space-occupying lesions), and healthy individuals. The study will collect demographic data and blood samples, which will be used to test α-fetoprotein (AFP), des–carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) and circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) methylation. The GAMAD (Gender+Age+Methylation+AFP+DCP) model involving gender, age, ctDNA methylation signature, AFP and DCP will be developed and blindly validated in training and validation sets (1400 and 600 cases, respectively). Primary endpoints include sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (receiver operating characteristic curves; area under the curve value) of GAMAD for HCC and/or high-risk HCC groups. Secondary endpoints involve comparing GAMAD with the established GALAD (Gender+Age+AFP-L3+AFP+DCP) model and each blood index (AFP, DCP and methylation signature) to evaluate: (1) GAMAD’s clinical utility for HCC patients in all stages according to different staging systems; (2) GAMAD’s discrimination ability for patients in various subgroups, including liver cirrhosis (LC) related HCC and LC, hepatitis B virus (HBV) related HCC and HBV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) related HCC and HCV, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) related HCC and NAFLD.

Ethics and dissemination
This trial has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committees of the First Hospital of Jilin University (#22K073-001), the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Naval Medical University (#EHBHKY2023-H0003-P001) and Tianjin Third Central Hospital (#IRB2023-007-01). All participants in the trial will provide written informed consent. Results of this study will be disseminated in peer-reviewed scientific journals and at conferences nationally and internationally.

Trial registration number
NCT05626985.

Leggi
Settembre 2023

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in advanced endometrial carcinoma after surgery: a retrospective analysis of the SEER Database

Objective
We aimed to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) after surgery in patients with advanced endometrial carcinoma (EC).

Design
Retrospective cohort study.

Setting and participants
The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database contains cancer incidence and survival data from population-based cancer registries in the USA. A total of 5445 patients from the SEER Database diagnosed with advanced EC between 2004 and 2015 were included and randomised 7:3 into a training cohort (n=3812) and a validation cohort (n=1633).

Outcome measure
CSS.

Results
The nomograms for CSS included 10 variables (positive regional nodes, age, tumour size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, grade, ethnicity, income, radiation, chemotherapy and historical stage) based on the forward stepwise regression results. They revealed discrimination and calibration using the concordance index (C-index) and area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, with a C-index value of 0.7324 (95% CI=0.7181 to 0.7468) and 0.7511 (95% CI=0.7301 to 0.7722) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Using calibration plots, a high degree of conformance was shown between the predicted and observed results. Additionally, a comparison of the nomogram and FIGO staging based on changes in the C-index, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement demonstrated that the nomogram had better accuracy and efficacy.

Conclusions
We successfully constructed an accurate and effective nomogram to predict CSS in patients with advanced EC, which may help clinicians determine optimal individualised treatment strategies for patients with advanced EC. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated thoroughly, but only internally. Therefore, further validation using different data sources is warranted in future related studies.

Leggi
Settembre 2023

Screening for renal cell carcinoma in renal transplant recipients: a single-centre retrospective study

Objectives
The primary objective of our study was to evaluate the effectiveness of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) screening in renal transplant (RT) recipients.

Design
Single-centre retrospective study.

Setting and participants
1998 RT recipients who underwent RT at Memorial Hermann Hospital (MHH) Texas Medical Center (TMC) between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2019 were included and we identified 16 patients (0.8%) with RCC. An additional four patients with RCC who underwent RT elsewhere but received follow-up at MHH TMC were also included. Subject races included white (20%), black (50%), Hispanic (20%) and Asian (10%).

Outcome measures
The RCC stage at diagnosis and outcomes were compared between patients who were screening versus those who were not.

Results
We identified a total of 20 patients with post-RT RCC, 75% of whom were men. The median age at diagnosis was 56 years. RCC histologies included clear cell (75%), papillary (20%) and chromophobe (5%). Patients with post-RT RCC who had screening (n=12) underwent ultrasound or CT annually or every 2 years, whereas eight patients had no screening. All 12 patients who had screening had early-stage disease at diagnosis (stage I (n=11) or stage II (n=1)) and were cured by nephrectomy (n=10) or cryotherapy (n=2). In patients who had no screening, three (37.5%) had stage IV RCC at diagnosis and all of whom died of metastatic disease. There was a statistically significant difference in RCC-specific survival in patients who were screened (p=0.01) compared with those who were not screened.

Conclusion
All RT recipients who had RCC diagnosed based on screening had early-stage disease and there were no RCC-related deaths. Screening is an effective intervention in RT recipients to reduce RCC-related mortality.

Leggi
Settembre 2023